Prediction-market traders priced Cleveland, Miami and Tennessee as clear Week 2 underdogs after opening losses, but not in the same way. Sept. 17 cross-platform tables from Cleveland.com showed Tampa Bay at 80 cents on Polymarket and 80% on Kalshi against Cleveland, Philadelphia at 76 cents and 75% against Tennessee, and San Francisco at 90 cents and 89% against Miami.
How wide were the Browns, Dolphins and Titans Week 2 prices?
Miami drew the steepest price among the three teams. Cleveland.com’s Sept. 17 table listed Dolphins-49ers at San Francisco 90 cents on Polymarket and 89% on Kalshi, with Miami at 11 cents on Polymarket and 12% on Kalshi. That made the 49ers the heaviest favorite in this group before their 4:25 p.m. ET game, a position reinforced by a later Sept. 20 SI Live table that put San Francisco at 89%, Miami at 12%, and Kalshi volume at $154,856.
Cleveland’s Week 2 price was only slightly less severe. The same Cleveland.com table listed Browns-Buccaneers at Tampa Bay 80 cents on Polymarket and 80% on Kalshi, with Cleveland at 21 cents and 22%. SI Live’s Sept. 20 Kalshi table again put Tampa Bay at 80% and Cleveland at 22%, with $43,813 in reported volume.
Tennessee was the strongest of the three underdogs by displayed price, but still trailed Philadelphia by a wide margin. Cleveland.com listed Eagles-Titans at Philadelphia 76 cents on Polymarket and 75% on Kalshi, with Tennessee at 25 cents on both platforms. SI Live’s Sept. 20 table also showed Eagles 75%, Titans 25%, and $195,038 in Kalshi volume, the largest Sunday figure listed for the early window.
Those prices do not imply that traders treated the three losses as equivalent. They show a ranking of Week 2 risk after one regular-season data point: Miami was priced as a double-digit long shot against San Francisco, Cleveland was grouped with the slate’s steepest early-window underdogs, and Tennessee remained in the mid-20s against Philadelphia.
Which Week 1 loss carried the clearest market penalty?
Cleveland’s Week 1 result gave traders the cleanest negative signal because the loss was decisive. The Browns lost 34-10 at Jacksonville, according to the Jaguars’ official game report, which said Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes and Jacksonville led 14-0 after the first quarter. Cleveland then drew Tampa Bay in Week 2 and sat at 21 to 22 cents across the Sept. 17 Polymarket and Kalshi table.
Miami’s Week 1 loss was not as lopsided by margin, but the opponent adjustment was harsher. The Dolphins lost 27-13 to Las Vegas in Week 1, while San Francisco beat the Los Angeles Rams 27-7 in Australia, according to the Rams’ official recap. By Week 2, traders were pricing San Francisco near 90 cents and Miami near 11 to 12 cents across the public tables reviewed here.
Tennessee’s opener landed between those cases. The Titans lost 23-10 to the New York Jets, according to the Jets’ official recap, which cited a Jets defense that sacked Cam Ward three times. The Titans’ Week 2 price against Philadelphia stayed higher than Miami’s and Cleveland’s, but the mid-20s still showed traders asking for a large payout to back Tennessee against the Eagles.
Why was Tennessee priced above Miami and Cleveland?
Tennessee’s relative position was less about confidence in the Titans than about the market’s ordering of all three matchups. The Eagles were a heavy favorite, but not priced as severely as San Francisco. The Browns and Dolphins also faced Week 2 prices shaped by their own losses, their opponents’ Week 1 context and each team’s broader season market.
Kalshi’s own NFL Power Rankings page gives one platform-specific view of that broader context and should be read as Kalshi’s methodology, not an independent scouting model. As of the page’s Sunday, Sept. 20 update at 2:24 p.m. ET, Kalshi listed Philadelphia seventh with a 72.0 Power Score and Tennessee 30th with a 9.7 Power Score. The same page listed Philadelphia’s playoff qualification price at 69% and Tennessee’s at 6%.
That futures backdrop helps explain why a 25% single-game price for Tennessee was not inconsistent with a weak market view of the Titans. Philadelphia was still separated from Tennessee by 23 ranking spots on Kalshi’s live table. The Titans could be priced above Miami and Cleveland for Week 2 while still being treated as one of the weaker teams in the league.
A Kalshi News article published Sept. 20 on Eagles-Titans used a slightly different snapshot, listing Philadelphia at 75% and Tennessee at 25% in the game market and saying Kalshi traders had Philadelphia favored by seven points. The article also put Philadelphia’s playoff qualification price at 67% and Tennessee’s at 8%. Those figures came from Kalshi’s own editorial and market ecosystem, so they are useful as platform context rather than a neutral consensus.
What did Polymarket add to the Week 2 picture?
Polymarket’s prices supplied a second venue for the same ordering. Cleveland.com’s Sept. 17 table showed Polymarket at Tampa Bay 80 cents against Cleveland, Philadelphia 76 cents against Tennessee and San Francisco 90 cents against Miami. Kalshi’s listed chances on the same table were within one point for Eagles-Titans and Browns-Buccaneers, and within one point on the favorite side for Dolphins-49ers.
The agreement matters because single exchange snapshots can be distorted by liquidity, spread width or one-sided order flow. Here, the public tables showed the same hierarchy across both platforms: San Francisco was the strongest favorite, Tampa Bay followed, and Philadelphia was a clear but less extreme favorite. The exact prices still moved, and the numbers should be read as time-stamped market snapshots rather than fixed forecasts.
The available Kalshi volume figures also gave useful scale. SI Live’s Sept. 20 table listed $195,038 in Eagles-Titans volume, $154,856 in Dolphins-49ers volume and $43,813 in Browns-Buccaneers volume. Those figures do not make the prices correct, but they help distinguish a displayed probability in an active market from a thin quote with little trading behind it.
What is the next test for these prices?
The next test is settlement. The NFL’s Week 2 schedule listed Eagles at Titans and Browns at Buccaneers for Sunday, Sept. 20 at 1 p.m. ET, and Dolphins at 49ers for 4:25 p.m. ET. Each result feeds directly into the next week’s single-game pricing and season markets.
For Tennessee, the market question is whether a team priced around 25% against Philadelphia can make the Eagles’ mid-70s price look too aggressive. For Cleveland, a second low-scoring offensive performance would give traders another reason to keep the Browns near the bottom of Week 3 boards. For Miami, the San Francisco game is the harshest test because traders had already pushed the 49ers to roughly 90 cents.
By the next full pricing cycle, traders will have two regular-season games instead of one. The specific market stakes are simple: Philadelphia-Tennessee, Tampa Bay-Cleveland and San Francisco-Miami will settle Sunday, and the Week 3 boards will show whether the first week’s markdowns were temporary reactions or the start of a deeper repricing.
