Bloomberg Profile Puts Kalshi’s $2 Million CPI Trader Next to Fed Research on Macro Markets
A former theater director trading from a Los Angeles garage is the most profitable public account in Kalshi's economics markets,…
Category: Economics
Fed decisions, inflation prints, recession odds, and macro forecasting markets.
Kalshi CPI markets price September inflation near 3.6% before October 14 BLS release
Kalshi markets expect September CPI at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. They give less than a…
Polymarket Gold Markets Show Why Touch Contracts Need Timestamps
Polymarket's October gold-touch market gives $4,200 a 64% chance on the exchange's own page, while a 99Bitcoins report put it…
Fed Hike Odds Converge Near 80% After CPI, With Kalshi and Polymarket Aligned
Three markets are telling three different stories ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Polymarket and CME FedWatch lean heavily…
Fed Rate-Hike Markets Move Above 80% After August CPI Rises 0.4%
August inflation came in hotter than July's 0.1% monthly gain, pushing CME FedWatch above 60% and Kalshi to 57% for…
Kalshi and Polymarket Price September Fed Hike Near 50% Before August CPI
With August CPI due September 11, Kalshi and Polymarket traders have pushed odds of a Fed rate hike at the…
Kalshi Prices September Fed Hold at 66% Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
With the federal funds rate parked at 3.50-3.75%, Kalshi and Polymarket traders are pricing a September hold at roughly 74%,…