The prediction market "Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?" on Polymarket has experienced a dramatic 1029.4% increase in the past 24 hours, with the probability rising from 8.8% to 100.0%.
What Triggered the Move
Price movements of this magnitude in prediction markets typically correspond to new information entering the public domain, whether through news reports, official announcements, or significant developments related to the underlying question. The $1.5M in 24-hour trading volume accompanying this move suggests genuine conviction behind the shift.
Market Context
With $1.5M in total volume traded, this is one of the more actively watched markets in the politics space. The upward move suggests growing confidence that this outcome will materialize.
The market is set to resolve on December 31, 2026, giving participants 228 days to adjust their positions.
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Polymarket