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Total Vol$4.5B 24H Vol$235.1M Markets386,518 Platforms4 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, … 100% +0% Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 100% +238.8% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 0% +0% US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22… 14% -17.1% Hawks vs. Knicks 100% +238.8% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25… 0% +0% Raptors vs. Cavaliers 0% -99.8% Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democrati… 1% +0% Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 1% +8.7% Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0% -40% Total Vol$4.5B 24H Vol$235.1M Markets386,518 Platforms4 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, … 100% +0% Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 100% +238.8% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 0% +0% US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22… 14% -17.1% Hawks vs. Knicks 100% +238.8% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25… 0% +0% Raptors vs. Cavaliers 0% -99.8% Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democrati… 1% +0% Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 1% +8.7% Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0% -40%

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Market Source % Chance Liq Vol Ends
1
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
AI & Tech $1.2K
Manifold +4.3% -- 28.0%
72.0%
$20.9K $1.2K 20mo Trade
2
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
World Events $1.1K
Manifold -2.0% -- 34.6%
65.4%
$15.0K $1.1K 45mo Trade
3
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
World Events $800
Manifold -4.0% -- 12.1%
87.9%
$10.0K $800 8mo Trade
4
Will Trump finish his second term?
Politics $780
Manifold -0.4% -- 78.2%
21.8%
$100.0K $780 33mo Trade
5
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics $146
Manifold -0.1% -- 21.4%
78.6%
$100.0K $146 31mo Trade
6
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Politics $125
Manifold -0.3% -- 20.2%
79.8%
$1.3K $125 33mo Trade
7
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
AI & Tech $50
Manifold +0.0% -- 62.0%
38.0%
$5.0K $50 47mo Trade
8
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
World Events $45
Manifold -0.0% -- 95.8%
4.2%
$100.0K $45 3mo Trade
9
Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?
Finance $35
Manifold -8.0% -- 26.3%
73.7%
$1.0K $35 8mo Trade
10
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Politics $5
Manifold +0.2% -- 30.8%
69.2%
$7.0K $5 9mo Trade
11
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 1.1%
98.9%
$1.2K -- 33mo Trade
12
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 66.9%
33.1%
$3.7K -- 288mo Trade
13
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
AI & Tech --
Manifold +0.0% -- 61.4%
38.6%
$2.1K -- 32mo Trade
14
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 9.6%
90.4%
$4.3K -- 288mo Trade
15
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Crypto --
Manifold +0.0% -- 68.7%
31.3%
$1.0K -- 154mo Trade
16
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 18.9%
81.1%
$1.3K -- 239mo Trade
17
Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 4.4%
95.6%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
18
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 8mo Trade
19
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 51.6%
48.4%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
20
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 59.0%
41.0%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
21
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 42.5%
57.5%
$1.0K -- 41mo Trade
22
Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 46.7%
53.3%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
23
Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 47.8%
52.2%
$1.0K -- 45mo Trade
24
By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 57mo Trade