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Total Vol$20.0B 24H Vol$7175.1M Markets12,918,590 Platforms4 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026… 100% +0% US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, … 0% +0% Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? 100% +0.1% Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? 0% +0% Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? 100% +0% Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 202… 100% +0% Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance 0% +0% Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? 0% +0% Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0% +0% Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance 100% +0% Total Vol$20.0B 24H Vol$7175.1M Markets12,918,590 Platforms4 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026… 100% +0% US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, … 0% +0% Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? 100% +0.1% Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? 0% +0% Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? 100% +0% Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 202… 100% +0% Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance 0% +0% Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? 0% +0% Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0% +0% Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance 100% +0%

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All Politics Crypto AI & Tech Finance Sports Pop Culture World Events Science Weather
Market Source % Chance Liq Vol Ends
1
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
AI & Tech $8.3K
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 86.0%
14.0%
$5.0K $8.3K 44mo Trade
2
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
World Events $1.3K
Manifold -0.2% -7.7% 36.9%
63.1%
$12.3K $1.3K 5mo Trade
3
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
World Events $776
Manifold +3.5% +3.5% 9.8%
90.2%
$10.0K $776 5mo Trade
4
Will Trump finish his second term?
Politics $450
Manifold +0.1% +0.5% 80.4%
19.6%
$100.0K $450 30mo Trade
5
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
AI & Tech $165
Manifold +0.0% -6.1% 29.5%
70.5%
$20.9K $165 18mo Trade
6
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
World Events $30
Manifold -0.2% -1.9% 33.3%
66.7%
$16.0K $30 42mo Trade
7
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
World Events $5
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 98.0%
2.0%
$100.0K $5 20d Trade
8
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Politics --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 21.5%
78.5%
$1.3K -- 30mo Trade
9
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics --
Manifold +0.0% -0.8% 19.6%
80.4%
$100.0K -- 28mo Trade
10
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 0.9%
99.1%
$1.2K -- 30mo Trade
11
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.7% 67.2%
32.8%
$3.7K -- 285mo Trade
12
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
AI & Tech --
Manifold +0.0% +1.6% 65.0%
35.0%
$2.1K -- 30mo Trade
13
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 9.6%
90.4%
$4.3K -- 285mo Trade
14
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Crypto --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 68.7%
31.3%
$1.0K -- 151mo Trade
15
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 19.0%
81.0%
$1.3K -- 236mo Trade
16
Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 4.4%
95.6%
$1.0K -- 894mo Trade
17
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 5mo Trade
18
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 51.6%
48.4%
$1.0K -- 285mo Trade
19
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 59.0%
41.0%
$1.0K -- 894mo Trade
20
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 42.5%
57.5%
$1.0K -- 38mo Trade
21
Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 46.7%
53.3%
$1.0K -- 285mo Trade
22
Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 47.8%
52.2%
$1.0K -- 42mo Trade
23
By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 54mo Trade
24
Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% +0.0% 82.2%
17.8%
$1.0K -- 42mo Trade