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Total Vol$5.0B 24H Vol$387.1M Markets700,500 Platforms4 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, … 100% +0% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 100% +544.8% Rockets vs. Lakers 0% -99.9% Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 100% +0% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 0% +0% Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? 1% Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? 100% +25.7% 76ers vs. Celtics 100% +769.1% Hawks vs. Knicks 100% +0% US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22… 1% -95.6% Total Vol$5.0B 24H Vol$387.1M Markets700,500 Platforms4 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, … 100% +0% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 100% +544.8% Rockets vs. Lakers 0% -99.9% Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 100% +0% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 0% +0% Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? 1% Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? 100% +25.7% 76ers vs. Celtics 100% +769.1% Hawks vs. Knicks 100% +0% US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22… 1% -95.6%

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44 active markets across platforms

All Trending New Ending Soon Top Movers
All Politics Crypto AI & Tech Finance Sports Pop Culture World Events Science Weather
Market Source % Chance Liq Vol Ends
1
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
AI & Tech $11.3K
Manifold +2.1% -- 28.6%
71.4%
$20.9K $11.3K 20mo Trade
2
Will Trump finish his second term?
Politics $2.9K
Manifold -0.3% -- 77.9%
22.1%
$100.0K $2.9K 33mo Trade
3
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
World Events $800
Manifold +0.0% -- 12.1%
87.9%
$10.0K $800 8mo Trade
4
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
World Events $100
Manifold -0.8% -- 34.3%
65.7%
$15.0K $100 44mo Trade
5
US recession in 2026?
Finance $80
Manifold -0.7% -- 28.1%
71.9%
$10.0K $80 8mo Trade
6
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
World Events $30
Manifold -0.0% -- 95.8%
4.2%
$100.0K $30 3mo Trade
7
Recession in Australia in 2026?
Finance $3
Manifold -0.3% -- 37.8%
62.2%
$1.0K $3 8mo Trade
8
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Politics --
Manifold +0.0% -- 20.2%
79.8%
$1.3K -- 33mo Trade
9
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
AI & Tech --
Manifold +0.0% -- 62.0%
38.0%
$5.0K -- 47mo Trade
10
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics --
Manifold +0.0% -- 21.4%
78.6%
$100.0K -- 31mo Trade
11
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 1.1%
98.9%
$1.2K -- 33mo Trade
12
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 66.9%
33.1%
$3.7K -- 288mo Trade
13
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
AI & Tech --
Manifold +0.0% -- 61.4%
38.6%
$2.1K -- 32mo Trade
14
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 9.6%
90.4%
$4.3K -- 288mo Trade
15
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Crypto --
Manifold +0.0% -- 68.7%
31.3%
$1.0K -- 154mo Trade
16
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 18.9%
81.1%
$1.3K -- 239mo Trade
17
Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 4.4%
95.6%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
18
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 8mo Trade
19
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 51.6%
48.4%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
20
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 59.0%
41.0%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
21
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 42.5%
57.5%
$1.0K -- 41mo Trade
22
Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 46.7%
53.3%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
23
Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 47.8%
52.2%
$1.0K -- 44mo Trade
24
By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 57mo Trade