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Total Vol$4.6B 24H Vol$261.6M Markets432,918 Platforms4 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, … 100% +0% Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 100% +263.5% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 0% +0% Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? 1% US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22… 7% -62.9% Hawks vs. Knicks 100% +227.7% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25… 0% +0% Raptors vs. Cavaliers 0% -99.8% Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democrati… 1% +0% Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 1% +8.7% Total Vol$4.6B 24H Vol$261.6M Markets432,918 Platforms4 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, … 100% +0% Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 100% +263.5% Trail Blazers vs. Spurs 0% +0% Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? 1% US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22… 7% -62.9% Hawks vs. Knicks 100% +227.7% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25… 0% +0% Raptors vs. Cavaliers 0% -99.8% Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democrati… 1% +0% Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 1% +8.7%

All Markets

26 active markets across platforms

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All Politics Crypto AI & Tech Finance Sports Pop Culture World Events Science Weather
Market Source % Chance Liq Vol Ends
1
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
World Events $1.1K
Manifold -2.0% -- 34.6%
65.4%
$15.0K $1.1K 45mo Trade
2
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
World Events $800
Manifold -3.7% -- 12.1%
87.9%
$10.0K $800 8mo Trade
3
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
World Events $40
Manifold -0.0% -- 95.8%
4.2%
$100.0K $40 3mo Trade
4
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 1.1%
98.9%
$1.2K -- 33mo Trade
5
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 66.9%
33.1%
$3.7K -- 288mo Trade
6
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 9.6%
90.4%
$4.3K -- 288mo Trade
7
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 18.9%
81.1%
$1.3K -- 239mo Trade
8
Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 4.4%
95.6%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
9
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 8mo Trade
10
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 51.6%
48.4%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
11
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 59.0%
41.0%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
12
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 42.5%
57.5%
$1.0K -- 41mo Trade
13
Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 46.7%
53.3%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
14
Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 47.8%
52.2%
$1.0K -- 45mo Trade
15
By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 30.0%
70.0%
$1.0K -- 57mo Trade
16
Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 76.6%
23.4%
$1.0K -- 45mo Trade
17
Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 37.7%
62.3%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
18
Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2100?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 21.6%
78.4%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
19
Will Our World In Data attribute more than 10 million deaths to climate change before 2030?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 47.1%
52.9%
$1.0K -- 56mo Trade
20
Will a coal mine be bought and closed by climate activists by 2033?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 59.1%
40.9%
$1.0K -- 81mo Trade
21
Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 19.1%
80.9%
$1.0K -- 775mo Trade
22
Ocean Acidification Should Be More Worrying Than Atmospheric Climate Change (Resolves to Probability)
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 49.7%
50.3%
$1.0K -- 897mo Trade
23
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 26.2%
73.8%
$1.0K -- 288mo Trade
24
Will Our World In Data attribute more than 1 million deaths to climate change before 2030?
World Events --
Manifold +0.0% -- 69.1%
30.9%
$1.0K -- 56mo Trade