Kalshi Leads $3 Million Prediction Market Lobbying Push as State Fights Spread

Meta description: Kalshi and prediction market allies have spent at least $3 million in 2026 as state AGs and gambling regulators challenge event contracts.

Tags: Kalshi, Polymarket, CFTC, OpenSecrets, State Attorneys General, American Gaming Association

Market platform: none-if-cross-platform

Category: Regulation

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have spent at least $3 million on lobbying and political contributions at the state and federal levels in 2026, according to an OpenSecrets analysis cited by Stateline on October 1. Kalshi accounts for much of the push, including more than $300,000 to national attorney general associations and registered lobbyists in 41 states.

The spending follows the legal geography of the industry’s biggest risk. Prediction market operators argue that event contracts listed on federally regulated exchanges fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. State officials, especially on sports contracts, argue that the products bypass state gambling laws, taxes and consumer protections. That puts attorneys general, governors, gambling regulators and state legislatures at the center of the fight.

How much has Kalshi given to attorney general and governor groups?

OpenSecrets found that Kalshi gave more than $300,000 combined to the Republican Attorneys General Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association, the two major national political groups that support state attorney general candidates. The company also gave $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association in the first half of 2026, according to the OpenSecrets analysis reported by Stateline.

Those recipients matter because state attorneys general have been among the most active officials challenging prediction market platforms. They issue cease-and-desist letters, defend state gambling laws in court and, in some states, bring enforcement actions. Governors matter because legislatures have started to consider market-specific bills, leaving state executives with the power to sign or veto new restrictions.

Kalshi has framed the giving as ordinary political participation. “Like many U.S. regulated companies, we support candidates on both sides of the aisle,” Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told OpenSecrets.

Where is Kalshi lobbying at the state level?

Kalshi has at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states, according to OpenSecrets. Stateline reported that the footprint gives Kalshi a lobbying presence in every state that has introduced legislation written specifically for prediction markets, with California and New York receiving significant attention.

The Coalition for Prediction Markets, the industry trade group, has also been active in California. Sportico reported that lobbying disclosures show the coalition working to build influence there as lawmakers consider how to treat event contracts.

Kalshi’s state outreach does not mean the company accepts state jurisdiction over its markets. Stateline reported that Sara Slane, Kalshi’s head of corporate development, told lawmakers this summer that Kalshi wanted relationships with states while maintaining that prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC, not by state gambling authorities.

What does Kalshi’s federal lobbying disclosure show?

Kalshi spent $990,000 on federal lobbying in the first half of 2026, based on its own Lobbying Disclosure Act filings: $490,000 in the first quarter and $500,000 in the second quarter. The second-quarter filing listed “matters affecting prediction markets,” event-contract rules, a CFTC rule proposal, the Prediction Market Act of 2026 and the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act among the issues.

The same second-quarter filing listed the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, CFTC and Executive Office of the President as contacted entities. Its named lobbyists were Sara Slane, John Bivona and Tony Hanagan.

That pace nearly matched Kalshi’s full-year 2025 federal lobbying total. Bloomberg Government reported that Kalshi’s January-through-June in-house lobbying reached $990,000, close to the roughly $1 million the company spent in all of 2025.

How much is Polymarket spending in Washington?

Polymarket’s operating entity, Blockratize, spent less than Kalshi in federal filings. Advocus Partners reported $90,000 in second-quarter 2026 lobbying income from Blockratize for strategic counsel and advocacy on digital asset policy and information markets.

The filing listed the House, Senate, CFTC, Treasury Department and Securities and Exchange Commission as contacted entities. The lobbyists named on the filing were David Urban, Keaghan Ames and Andrew Lewin. Ames’s listed prior roles include senior policy adviser and counselor at the CFTC.

NOTUS reported that Olivia Chalos, Polymarket’s deputy chief legal officer, said in a statement that a uniform federal framework would serve responsible market operators and market participants.

Who is lobbying against prediction markets?

The legacy gambling industry is spending on the other side of the policy fight. NOTUS reported that the American Gaming Association spent $630,000 from April through June on issues that included sports event contracts and prediction markets.

FanDuel spent $480,000 combined in the second quarter, according to NOTUS, and hired FGS Global in May for issues related to online sports betting. DraftKings reported $350,000 in federal lobbying for the quarter, with prediction market regulation among the issues listed.

The industry alignment is complicated by sportsbook operators’ own moves into event contracts. DraftKings and FanDuel have launched or announced prediction-market-style products, even as the American Gaming Association argues that sports event contracts should be treated as gambling under state and tribal regulatory systems.

Why are attorneys general and the CFTC central to the fight?

The central legal question is whether federal commodities law preempts state gambling law for event contracts listed on federally regulated exchanges. Prediction market operators say the contracts are commodity derivatives under CFTC oversight. State officials say sports contracts in particular look and function like sports betting.

Stateline reported that the CFTC has sued nine states that attempted to regulate prediction markets. The agency, which is designed to have five commissioners, currently has four vacancies, according to Stateline. The same report noted that Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, has financial stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Critics argue that the industry’s spending reflects the stakes of that preemption fight. Brad Lipton, director of the Roosevelt Institute’s corporate power and financial regulation program, told OpenSecrets that the sector faces an “existential question.”

“It’s not at all clear to me that their business model can compete if they are going to comply with state law,” Lipton said. “They’re really trying to create a situation, I think, where they have enough political power to overcome the legal deficiencies in their arguments.”

The Roosevelt Institute is a progressive think tank that has criticized corporate power in financial markets. Kalshi’s position is that it operates as a federally regulated derivatives exchange, a position now being tested in multiple state and federal forums.

What happens next?

The next public marker is the third-quarter federal lobbying deadline. Under the Lobbying Disclosure Act calendar, quarterly reports covering July through September 2026 are due October 20, 2026.

Those filings will show whether Kalshi kept up its $500,000 second-quarter pace and whether Polymarket, the Coalition for Prediction Markets, the American Gaming Association, FanDuel and DraftKings escalated their federal spending as state-level litigation and legislation continued.