Meta description: CFTC records obtained by WIRED show three insider-trading probes into Polymarket trades tied to Biden pardons, Iran and Google rankings.
Tags: CFTC, Polymarket, Google, Michele Spagnuolo, Joe Biden, Iran
Market platform: Polymarket
Category: Regulation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission authorized three private investigations this year into suspected insider trading on Polymarket event contracts tied to Joe Biden pardons, Iran-related markets and Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings, according to CFTC voting records obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request and published September 11, 2026.
The authorizations do not mean charges will follow. They show that the agency’s enforcement division obtained formal investigative authority in three sets of Polymarket trades that had drawn public attention for large profits, high win rates or alleged access to nonpublic information.
What did the CFTC authorize?
WIRED reported that CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig approved the first order in early May 2026, allowing the enforcement division to investigate potential insider trading in Polymarket contracts related to pardons issued by former President Joe Biden. The order authorized testimony, subpoenas, oaths and document production.
The records obtained by WIRED did not identify the specific trades under review. The timing matters because the order came several weeks after NPR reported on a trader who made more than $300,000 on pardon-related Polymarket contracts in the final days of the Biden administration. NPR reported that the trader correctly wagered that Biden would issue preemptive pardons to several prominent critics of President Donald Trump, including former Representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and Senator Adam Schiff.
Selig approved a second private investigation order at the end of May, this one focused on Iran event contracts on Polymarket, according to WIRED. That order also did not detail the trades. It came two weeks after CBS’s 60 Minutes reported on a network of accounts that made $2.4 million on Iran-related Polymarket trades with a reported 98 percent win rate.
The third authorization came in July and focused on suspected insider trading in Google-themed Polymarket contracts. WIRED reported that Paul Hayeck wrote in an email included in the FOIA documents that the investigation concerned additional individuals who may have traded on inside information related to Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. Hayeck also wrote that the Southern District of New York was conducting a parallel investigation and that the CFTC inquiry was separate from the pending case against Google employee Michele Spagnuolo.
What is the Michele Spagnuolo case?
The Google-related investigation sits alongside public civil and criminal cases filed in Manhattan federal court on May 27, 2026. The CFTC filed a civil complaint against Spagnuolo in Commodity Futures Trading Commission v. Spagnuolo, No. 1:26-cv-04419, in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The Justice Department separately unsealed a criminal complaint that became United States v. Spagnuolo, No. 1:26-cr-00278.
The CFTC said in its May 27 press release that Spagnuolo, a Switzerland-based Google employee, allegedly used sensitive nonpublic information about Google’s official 2025 Year in Search list to trade on Polymarket. The agency alleged that from at least October 2025 through at least December 2025, Spagnuolo bought Yes or No shares in at least 23 Year in Search contracts, including markets titled “#1 Searched Person on Google this year” and “Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025.”
The CFTC complaint alleges that Spagnuolo generated about $1.2 million in profits. The agency is seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.
The Justice Department’s May 27 release said prosecutors charged Spagnuolo with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. DOJ said Spagnuolo was presented that day before U.S. Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York. Prosecutors alleged that he risked about $2,754,092 on markets related to Google’s internal information between October 15, 2025, and December 4, 2025, and profited about $1.2 million after the information became public and the markets resolved.
Both cases remain at the allegation stage unless and until the claims are proven in court. In its release, the CFTC quoted Selig saying the commission “will not tolerate fraud, manipulation, or insider trading.” CFTC enforcement director David I. Miller said employees entrusted with confidential business information cannot misappropriate it for personal gain.
How does this fit with Polymarket’s CFTC history?
Polymarket’s earlier clash with the CFTC centered on registration, not insider trading. On January 3, 2022, the CFTC entered an order against Blockratize, Inc., doing business as Polymarket, for offering off-exchange event-based binary options contracts and failing to register as a designated contract market or swap execution facility. The CFTC ordered a $1.4 million civil monetary penalty, required the company to wind down noncompliant markets and directed it to cease and desist from violating the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.
The 2026 investigation orders described by WIRED are different. They concern trading conduct by market participants in particular event contracts, including possible misuse of nonpublic information. The Biden pardon and Iran matters have not produced public CFTC charges against named defendants. The Google matter already includes public allegations against Spagnuolo, while the July authorization described by WIRED points to a separate inquiry into other potential traders connected to the same Year in Search information.
The distinction matters for prediction-market regulation. The CFTC’s 2022 Polymarket settlement treated event contracts as swaps subject to federal commodities law. The Spagnuolo filings test how traditional fraud and insider-trading theories can apply to event contracts where the disputed information may come from a private employer, a government decision or a geopolitical development rather than an issuer’s earnings or securities filing.
Why do the Biden pardon and Iran probes matter?
The Biden pardon and Iran authorizations show the CFTC using formal investigative tools after public reports of unusual Polymarket trading. In both matters, WIRED reported that the FOIA records identify the subject area and investigative authority but not the full set of accounts, transaction volumes or evidence the agency is examining.
That leaves the public record narrower than in the Spagnuolo case. The NPR and 60 Minutes reports supplied the headline numbers: more than $300,000 in profit on pardon-related markets in one case, and $2.4 million in profits with a 98 percent win rate on Iran-related trades in the other. The CFTC authorizations show those areas drew agency attention, but the orders themselves do not establish that any trader violated the law.
For Polymarket and other event-contract venues, the immediate issue is market integrity. Prediction markets derive much of their value from price discovery, but that value depends on whether traders believe prices reflect dispersed public information rather than privileged access to government decisions, corporate data or confidential operational intelligence.
What comes next?
The next dated public milestone is in the Spagnuolo criminal case. U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres entered an August 25, 2026 order setting trial for June 1, 2027, in United States v. Spagnuolo, No. 1:26-cr-00278. A July 9 protective order in the same case also references related civil litigation in CFTC v. Spagnuolo, No. 26 Civ. 4419.
The Biden pardon and Iran investigations remain private unless the CFTC closes them, brings public charges or discloses more records. The Google-related July inquiry is separate from the filed Spagnuolo civil case, according to the WIRED-reported email from Hayeck, and the public record does not yet show how many additional accounts or trades the CFTC is examining.
For now, the enforcement picture is split: one Google Year in Search case is moving toward a June 1, 2027 trial date in Manhattan, while the Biden pardon, Iran and additional Google inquiries remain inside the CFTC’s investigative process.
